If all went according to plan, high-level peace talks would now be underway in Turkey with the hopes of negotiating an end to the devastating war in Ukraine. It’s now clear, however, that all is not going according to plan.
At the heart of the problem is the fact that Russia’s Vladimir Putin has apparently decided not to participate in the talks that he requested. Politico reported:
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not travel to Turkey to attend peace talks with Ukraine that he himself suggested, the Kremlin announced Wednesday evening. The news is of little surprise, as Putin had never confirmed he would attend in person. Many observers, including EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, predicted he wouldn’t elect to meet directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
NBC News confirmed the reporting and noted that Donald Trump seemed eager to brush off the significance of the developments. Referring to Putin, the American president told reporters: “Why would he go if I’m not going? Because I wasn’t going to go.”
It’s not nearly that simple. Consider the recent events that led to this point.
In January, two days after Trump’s second inaugural, the Republican published a message to his social media platform, telling Russia that if it failed to end the conflict quickly, the White House “would have no other choice” but to impose new economic sanctions. Putin proceeded to ignore the threat, and Trump failed to follow through.
In early March, it happened again: Trump gave Putin a choice — sanctions or a ceasefire — and the Russian leader again ignored his American counterpart. In late March, Trump once again said he was prepared to impose economic penalties on Russia. In keeping with the pattern, Putin ignored the threat and Trump failed to follow through.
Earlier this month — for the fourth time in four months — the American president wrote online, “If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions.” For the fourth time, Russia expressed indifference.
Last week, however, Trump administration officials, including the U.S. envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, met with U.S. allies and settled on a specific strategy: If Moscow didn’t agree to a ceasefire, he’d face a new round of international economic penalties, including from the United States.
Putin said he’d consider a ceasefire, but only after talks. Kellogg and U.S. allies stuck to their offer: Ceasefire first, then peace negotiations. To reject this approach, they said, would be to invite sanctions.
It was at that point when Trump stepped all over his own team and U.S. allies, writing on Sunday to his social media platform: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.”
At the White House’s urging, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he would participate in direct negotiations in Turkey this week. A few days later, the Kremlin said Putin isn’t going to the talks Putin wanted.
Or put another way, Trump kneecapped his own envoy to support Putin’s approach, which Putin then abandoned.
The American president’s entire strategy was originally premised on the absurd idea that he’d resolve the crisis on the first day of his second term. His vision has only gone downhill from there.
