In his first television interview after last month’s presidential debate, President Joe Biden told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, “If I stop now, I’d go down in history as a pretty successful president.”
By any fair measure, the incumbent had a point. Biden has an impressive record of accomplishments, and when scholars ranked all American presidents earlier this year, Biden fared quite well — which was more than his immediate predecessor could say.
But facing daunting odds and a party filled with members who’d lost confidence in his ability to win in the fall, the Democrat’s “if I stop now” comments suddenly have renewed relevance. As my MSNBC colleague Hayley Miller summarized:
President Joe Biden on Sunday announced that he is withdrawing his bid for re-election after weeks of pressure from top Democrats to drop out of the race amid concerns over his cognitive state and his ability to beat Donald Trump in November.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden wrote in a letter to Americans. “And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”
He soon after endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him.
The stunning and historic announcement left the nation with a rather obvious question: “What happens now?”
Unfortunately for everyone involved in the process, there is no precedent for such circumstances. Election Day 2024 is just 15 weeks away; the Democratic National Convention is poised to kick off four weeks from tomorrow; and there is no existing road map for officials to follow.
For Democrats, the list of questions is long, and the list of answers is not.
How will the party choose a nominee? Biden has endorsed Harris, and that will carry significant weight. Similarly, a variety of prominent congressional Democrats have also thrown their support behind the vice president. But others in the party have balked at the idea of a “coronation,” and there’s been talk in recent weeks about a possible “mini-primary” system — what some have referred to as a “blitz” primary — and that conversation is likely to intensify in the coming hours and days.
What’s to come of the virtual nominating process? Officials at the Democratic National Committee have said they intend to move forward with plans for a virtual process in early August, not to curtail the debate over Biden, but in order to address potential legal hurdles regarding the ballot in some key states. The president’s announcement will complicate those plans.
The Democratic running mate? No matter who the nominee is, they will obviously need a running mate, and the vetting process should’ve started weeks, if not months, ago. That said, a Washington Post report noted overnight that major Democratic donors “are funding a preliminary vetting process for potential vice-presidential nominees,” adding: “In recent days, people involved in the effort have contacted the teams of top Democratic figures, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive effort. The donors are also interested in vetting North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.”
What about the money Biden has raised? Election law experts can speak to this with more authority than I can, but a recent NBC News report, published before Biden’s announcement, said: “If President Joe Biden decides to step aside for the 2024 race, Vice President Kamala Harris would be in line to get first dibs on the tens of millions of dollars in his campaign war chest.”
Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said during a call three weeks ago that in the event of the president dropping out, Harris would then control most of the money in their campaign account. NBC News’ report added, “That appears to be correct, according to some campaign finance experts — but likely only if she then became the Democrats’ presidential nominee.”
What about Republicans? It is not a secret that Donald Trump and his party saw Biden as a highly vulnerable, easy-to-defeat incumbent. In fact, The New York Times reported overnight that the former president’s senior team “would prefer that Mr. Biden remains in the race,” adding: “After the debate, the Trump team decided to hold back advertising that could further damage Mr. Biden.”
Now that the incumbent president is ending his candidacy, GOP officials and their allies will have to overhaul pretty much everything — their strategy, their messaging, their expectations, their advertising, etc. — and will simultaneously be launching legal challenges in the hopes of making the Democrats’ process as messy and difficult as possible. As recently as Sunday morning, House Speaker Mike Johnson explicitly endorsed those legal tactics.
Buckle up.
