The 2024 election, Donald Trump says in one of the myriad fundraising pitches that he has sent to his followers since his third criminal indictment in four months, will be “the FINAL BATTLE for the heart and soul of our country.” Giving one’s hard-earned money to a multimillionaire who needs to pay his legal fees for repeatedly and brazenly breaking the law will “determine whether we can keep our Republic or whether America has succumbed to the dark forces of tyranny.”
Oddly, Trump has a point (though, to be sure, succumbing to the “dark forces of tyranny” would mean his return to the White House, not the re-election of his political rival, Joe Biden). The central issue of the 2024 campaign will almost certainly be Trump’s legal status — and whether the former president will ever be held criminally accountable for his actions. If it feels like American politics hasn’t been able to escape the last presidential election, we ain’t seen nothing yet.
It’s fairly clear that Trump isn’t all that focused on winning in the courtroom.
While Trump may have plenty of reasons for wanting to return to the White House (with public service and/or helping the American people at the bottom of the list), none is likely to loom larger than the fact that likely the single best way for him to avoid going to prison is to win the nation’s highest elected office.
“His advisers, in private conversations, have been pretty blunt,” New York Times political reporter Maggie Haberman told CNN last month. “They see it as he has to win the election and that is how he guarantees that he does not face jail time.”
“The fact that they are looking to an election to the highest office in the land as some kind of insurance policy or an out for him really affects or colors the entire presidential race,” she noted.
That is putting it mildly.
Since Trump claims what he did in 2020 was justified in trying to overturn what he claims was an illegitimate election, and considers the indictments against him to amount to election interference by the Biden administration, one can hardly expect him to deny that a victory in November 2024 would be akin to a get-out-of-jail-free card.
If anything, it would be surprising if Trump doesn’t state it openly, and uses it as a selling point for his supporters to get to the polls. “A vote for Trump keeps him out of prison” is as crass a presidential campaign slogan as one can imagine, but for a guy who ran against Hillary Clinton on a message of “lock her up,” it’s hardly a reach.
In fact, what has been most striking about Trump’s response to his two federal indictments is that he has leaned into attacking the lead prosecutor, special counsel Jack Smith. Calling Smith “deranged” might resonate with Trump’s besotted followers, but it’s hardly the kind of approach that most defense lawyers would rally behind.
The more that 2024 is about Trump, the worse it will be for him and the party he leads.
But it’s fairly clear that Trump isn’t all that focused on winning in the courtroom — where the evidence and the law are stacked against him — but rather at the ballot box next year, where he has a puncher’s chance to prevail. Attacking Smith and dismissing the charges against him as a political attack is above all a strategy for avoiding prison by winning the 2024 presidential election and not having to face that possibility.
If somehow Trump can push the trials past 2024 Election Day, we may never find out how persuasive the evidence against him is to a jury of his peers. A Trump presidential victory, however, would likely mean that the federal charges against him would disappear. But what if the trials are fast-tracked and begin early next year? Considering the overwhelming evidence of Trump’s criminal misdeeds, there’s a more than a reasonable chance that he will be convicted. In that scenario, the 2024 election will be completely colored by Trump’s legal status. It’s likely that the No. 1 issue in the campaign will be a self-pardon for Trump or some other gambit to ensure that he avoids criminal accountability. If there is a convicted criminal appearing on a presidential ticket, what else will there be to talk about in 2024? From Trump’s perspective, this “strategy” make a lot of sense, since a) he clearly doesn’t care about America’s democratic system and b) federal prison is generally not considered the best way to spend one’s twilight years. But what about the party that has sworn loyalty to him? Rather than making 2024 a referendum on Joe Biden’s presidency or perhaps his advanced age, every Republican candidate for House, Senate and governor will have to explain their support for a candidate who is running for president to, in effect, upend the rule of law. That might work out for candidates in deep red states and congressional districts, but for those in more competitive races, it is likely to serve as a political albatross from which there is no escape. While it’s possible that voters will rally around the former president and come to view the multiple prosecutions against him as a political witch hunt — that will more likely be a minority position among Americans. The more that 2024 is about Trump, the worse it will be for him and the party he leads. Trump might be right that the “final battle” is coming — and it will be no walk in the park for the American people to have to endure another campaign full of his lies. But for Republicans, it will likely be downright terrifying.
Michael A. Cohen is a political writer and a fellow with the Eurasia Group Foundation. 
