This isn’t a normal government shutdown, and past shutdowns shouldn’t be treated as models for how Democrats respond to their current crisis.
Trump lashing out over the shutdown is an opportunity for Democrats to get more Americans to confront the country’s slide into authoritarianism.
Refusing to help the Republican majority pass a budget and end the current shutdown is about more than energizing the Democratic base. Shutdowns inevitably harm federal workers and the millions of Americans who rely on their services, but the Trump administration is illegally removing federal employees and dismantling government programs already, part of its broader attack on constitutional checks and balances.
Painful as it may be, Democrats should refuse to play ball with the Trump administration.
Unfortunately, making things better for the American people coming out of this shutdown is probably not an option. Either Trump makes things worse with Democratic affirmation, or Trump makes things worse despite Democratic opposition. But in these unusual circumstances, things getting worse — and faster — could actually help pull America back from the brink of dictatorship.
Painful as it may be, Democrats should refuse to play ball with the Trump administration. This White House cannot credibly commit to following the law, and rather than enter budget negotiations in good faith, it threatens even more lawbreaking to force Democratic acquiescence. No matter what beneficial government programs a deal with Trump preserves on paper, making any deal with him signals acceptance of a situation Democrats should treat as untenable.
The United States government is not currently operating under the Constitution. The executive branch has usurped congressional authority, ignores numerous court orders and violates rights — transforming the country from a rule-of-law democracy into a deepening authoritarianism. The administration is consolidating institutional power at agencies that used to be professional and partially independent, most visibly at the Department of Justice. Broader regime consolidation is also happening outside government, as Trump-allied oligarchs take over more of the information ecosystem.
That requires a different counterstrategy than typical politics.
When the law required Trump to leave power after losing re-election in 2020, he attempted a self-coup — and that was before the Supreme Court majority helped him escape legal accountability for it — so there’s reason to fear he won’t step down as constitutionally required at the end of this term. In the meantime, the White House’s institutional control is likely to increase, even if it weakens the institutions in the process.
That means the best time for the opposition to take a stand, rather than settle for untrustworthy promises, is right now.
The administration’s desire for dominance is bottomless, but its capacity is not. The Trump White House is abusing power and hurting people but faces resistance from a deeply ingrained liberal and democratic American culture.
The main counterforce to Trump’s authoritarian ambitions is his deep and growing unpopularity. Trump’s approval rating is down to the high 30s, and he’s underwater on nearly every issue, even on supposed signatures like the economy and immigration.
The bigger the backlash to Trump’s overreach, the bigger a blue wave.
Growing societal opposition means more civil society leaders willing to say “no” — such as Disney/ABC reinstating Jimmy Kimmel after consumer pressure, or UC Berkeley law dean Erwin Chemerinsky calling Trump’s proposed deals with universities “extortion” and urging collective refusal.
Actions like these counteract Trump’s intimidation, making him seem smaller. By contrast, corporations, universities and other institutions surrendering without being forced makes him seem stronger, like the winds are blowing his way.
Societal opposition also has an institutional impact via state and congressional elections. Republicans are trying to corrupt them, such as with extreme red-state gerrymanders, some transparently aimed at disenfranchising Black voters.
But enough votes can overcome that, especially if retaliatory gerrymanders in California and other blue states help keep the playing field near even. However he might like to, Trump doesn’t currently hold enough power to rig independent elections in 50 states.
The bigger the backlash to Trump’s overreach, the bigger a blue wave. Democrats stand a decent chance of getting control of the House, which gives them powers of agenda setting, oversight and a piece of whatever remains of legislation. A big enough wave and they’ll capture the Senate too, but that’s a long shot given the seats up for election this year. Still, any gains in the Senate increase Democrats’ institutional leverage and their chance of taking control after the next election. In normal politics, sustaining budget fights is hard for Democrats, because they’re the party more interested in government functioning. In 2011, a GOP-led House wrung big spending cuts out of the Obama administration by refusing to raise the debt ceiling, thereby holding America’s credit hostage. But Democratic opposition to Trump’s lawbreaking is a stronger principle and message, and so serious that taking a stand is worth whatever short-term pain it causes. Ever the bully, Trump’s instinct is to threaten and escalate. Instead of cowing before that, pro-democracy forces should welcome it. The president acting like a repressive dictator now — instead of waiting for consolidated power — plays to the opposition’s advantage. For example, Trump and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought announced $8 billion in cuts to green energy funds from selected states, all of which have two Democratic senators and voted for Kamala Harris. That’s no less than taxation without representation. Those blue states — which include the biggest “donor states” that pay more in federal taxes than they get back, effectively subsidizing the rest — will have federal outlays unconstitutionally canceled, in violation of law duly passed by representatives from those states, among others. Don’t buy the canard that this is retaliation for Democratic intransigence, or that shutdowns grant the executive branch vast new powers. Vought has advocated this sort of illegal rescission for years, including as the lead author of Project 2025. Trump’s instinct is to threaten and escalate. Instead of cowing before that, pro-democracy forces should welcome it. It’s hard in today’s information environment, but the more Americans see stuff like this, the better. In that sense, ICE reportedly planning to target Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show could yield something productive. While the actions themselves would be awful, seeing the cruelty and inhumanity play out during the year’s most watched event would force more Americans to reckon with the Trump administration’s attacks on rights. “Win the shutdown” in the old sense does not apply. Trump and the Republicans control the White House, House and Senate, along with the Supreme Court. They can pass a budget on their own if they want. Yes, the filibuster sets a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, but a simple majority can easily change that, like Republicans recently did so they could confirm 48 judges at once. Democrats should ignore hand-wringing pundits whose minds are stuck in the past, remember that the next national election is over a year away, and use that time to rally Americans against the forces destroying their democracy, strengthening the opposition’s hand for the even bigger fights to come. Instead of rescuing Trump and Republicans from themselves, take an unwavering stand against their attack on constitutional democracy.
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of "Drones and Terrorism." 
