President Donald Trump could cut billions from the Social Security trust fund without passing a single law.
By reducing immigration to the United States and deporting people already here, the Trump administration could dramatically reduce the amount of money going into the earned benefits program over the next few years.
That’s because many noncitizens pay Social Security taxes even though they don’t typically qualify for benefits, so they’re essentially putting money into the pot without taking any out.
A recent report showed exactly how much of a problem Trump’s immigration policies could be for the earned benefits program. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, lower-than-expected immigration could lead to an increased revenue shortfall of 11.4% each year.
Already, the Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2035, which would mean benefits would either have to be slashed to what can be paid by taxes coming in each year — about 75% of current benefits, according to the Social Security Administration — or taxes would have to be raised. Regular yearly shortfalls of money going into the trust fund would only speed up that date.
Trump and his allies could argue that ramping up deportations — sometimes without providing due process — is worth the damage to Social Security, or even necessary, to address their concerns about other effects of immigration. But that’s not what they have done. Instead, as I’ve noted previously, billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk has peddled false claims that many noncitizens are illegally getting Social Security benefits. The Trump administration went even further, moving thousands of migrants to the Social Security’s “death master file” to make it harder for them to access credit cards, bank accounts and other financial services, according to a report in The New York Times. (The administration later renamed the list the “ineligible master file.”) Subscribe to Trump’s First 100 Days newsletter for weekly updates on and expert insight into the key issues and figures defining his second term.
Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for MS NOW.
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