In Tuesday’s Massachusetts Senate primary, only one of the party contests will actually determine how competitive the general election is–the Republican primary.
Most of the slim attention paid to the race to succeed Secretary of State John Kerry has focused on the Democratic slugfest between Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch–and rightly so. In the solidly blue state, either one will be the frontrunner in a general election.
But the more important contest may be on the GOP side. In the closing days, strategists on both sides believe former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez has the momentum to win the nomination.
Gomez possessed the largest television presence among Republicans over the past month and crushed the other candidates in fundraising. A Suffolk University/7News poll out Monday showed Gomez leading in key bellwether areas over former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan, with state Rep. Dan Winslow a distant third. Winslow just released his first TV ad yesterday, highlighting his newspaper endorsements, while Tea Party groups backing Sullivan have aired TV ads hitting the other candidates in the race.
If it is Gomez who does emerge, national Republicans don’t believe they’re automatically down for the count despite the state’s significant Democratic tilt. If nothing else, showcasing Gomez gives them a top candidate with a profile they badly need to replicate across the country–a young, Hispanic moderate.
Gomez, 47, is the son of Colombian immigrants and learned English as a second language. He attended the U.S. Naval Academy and became a pilot and later a Navy SEAL. After leaving the Navy, he received his MBA from Harvard Business School and went to work for Boston-based investment company Advent International.
A fiscal conservative, Gomez is more moderate on social issues, though that hasn’t been his focus. He supports gay marriage as a state decision, and while personally opposed to abortion, he hasn’t made overturning Roe v. Wade a key point.
However, that moderation, and seeming overeagerness, could hurt him. His fellow Republicans have attacked him for seeking the temporary Senate appointment earlier this year, writing to Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick that he would support President Obama on guns and immigration. Gomez has said he favors expanded background checks, but not an assault weapons ban.
Another resume line Democrats are sure to bring up: Gomez was the spokesman for a controversial group of military and intelligence officials who accused Obama of endangering national security by releasing information around the killing of Osama bin Laden. The group released a 22-minute online film during last year’s presidential election, “Dishonorable Disclosures: How leaks and politics threaten our national security.”
Like the Democratic race, Republicans also took a pause after the tragic Boston bombings. But Gomez was uniquely positioned to talk about the bombings–he was running the Boston Marathon that day, and had just crossed the finish line before the first bomb exploded.
According to one source, don’t be surprised if national Republicans spend some money on this race. Party committees could get involved, but outside groups have already played in the primary and may continue to do so. A Gomez political action committee led by former Romney top strategist Eric Fehrnstrom has run radio ads boosting Gomez as a “new Republican.” Many other former Romney aides are working on either the Gomez and Sullivan campaigns.
DEMOCRATS REMAIN CONFIDENT
After a supposedly tight and expensive race last cycle saw Elizabeth Warren thump Republican incumbent Scott Brown by a more-than-expected eight points, Democrats rightly scoff at the idea that this will be competitive in the end, no matter who their nominee is.
Without Brown on the ballot, the race immediately lost most of its starpower appeal. The contest, for both sides, was seen as a foregone conclusion, with Markey as the Democratic frontrunner who would slide through to the general election. And with Brown now reportedly even weighing a Senate run in neighboring New Hampshire, there was a talent vacuum in the Bay State GOP that needed to be filled as well.









