For generations, states redrew congressional district lines after the decennial census. There were exceptions, but in nearly every instance, mid-decade redistricting only happened when courts told states that their maps were unlawful and needed to be redone.
The idea that politicians would engage in such abuses as a matter of will was practically unheard of — for the most part.
Texas Republicans broke radical ground with a mid-decade redistricting scheme in 2003, and GOP officials in the Lone Star State recently completed a similar gambit: On Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott made it official, creating a new map designed to give his party five additional U.S. House seats. The developments helped launch a partisan arms race of sorts, with California Democrats moving forward with a comparable plan that would try to give their party five more seats of their own.
Donald Trump, after having successfully demanded action in Texas, has now brought another red state on board. NBC News reported:
Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe announced Friday that he will convene the state’s General Assembly for a special session next week to redraw congressional maps as Republicans push to create more GOP-leaning districts ahead of the 2026 midterms. Kehoe said in a statement outlining the move that for the special session starting Wednesday he is directing the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature to ‘take action on redistricting’ to ensure districts ‘truly put Missouri values first.’
The governor and his party are likely to do as they please — with Kehoe in the governor’s office, and the GOP enjoying a supermajority in the legislature, Democrats can’t realistically stop them — but we’re really only talking about a seat or two. After all, Missouri has an eight-member U.S. House delegation, and Republicans already control six of the eight seats. (The plan, at least for now, is to carve up Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s district.)
Similarly, the White House has been aggressively lobbying Republicans in Indiana to follow the same script — even threatening primary campaigns against those who resist — despite the fact that the GOP already controls seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.
Meanwhile, it’s becoming increasingly likely that we’ll see related efforts in some blue states, including Illinois and Maryland, and other red states, including Louisiana, Ohio and Florida.
Why go to all of this trouble to shift a handful of votes on Capitol Hill? Because the Republican majority in the House is already tiny, and if historical patterns hold true, Democrats are likely to make meaningful gains in the 2026 midterm cycle.
And so a multifaceted partisan scramble is underway, with Trump and his allies targeting mail-in ballots, voter-ID laws, the census, voter registrations and gerrymandering — not because it’s responsible, and not because it’ll benefit the public, but because of the Republicans’ desperation to hold onto power and prevent Democrats from gaining a toehold that might lead to some degree of accountability for the president.
The stakes, in other words, are high, and if the redistricting arms race can result in a net gain of a half-dozen or so seats for the GOP — in effect, ensuring wins before voters can even cast ballots — it might very well keep Republicans in power for the rest of the decade, no matter what the American people actually want.
