As most fair-minded observers would probably agree, the race for the White House remains anybody’s guess. No matter who wins the presidential contest, however, he or she is going to look to the U.S. Senate to help govern, and as it turns out, figuring out which party will be in the chamber’s majority next year isn’t easy, either.
As regular readers know, the Senate Democratic conference currently has a one-seat majority, but with Sen. Joe Manchin retiring in West Virginia, Republicans have, for all intents and purposes, already flipped one seat.
With this in mind, Republicans will need a net gain of just one additional seat to secure a majority, which is hardly unrealistic given the number of tough races in states where there’s currently a Democratic incumbent — including races in states where Donald Trump is all but certain to win easily.
So where do things stand with 32 days remaining? Let’s take stock.
There are, by most measures, 11 Senate races that could credibly be described as “competitive.” Taking them one at a time, in alphabetical order:
Arizona: Incumbent independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is retiring
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has led failed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in nearly every poll for months, and with an abortion-rights ballot measure likely to boost turnout, Gallego is the clear favorite.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite Lake’s baggage from her 2022 race, the election denier isn’t being blown out, and the fact that the race is competitive is keeping Democratic money flowing into the state, instead of other contests.
Florida: Incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott is seeking a second term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: The far-right incumbent is not well liked; he has no accomplishments or record of successes; an abortion-rights ballot measure is likely to boost turnout; and polls suggest former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is keeping this contest far more competitive than most thought possible.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: At the end of the day, Florida is a red state, filled with voters who probably won’t care about the senator’s awful record; Scott is able to invest heavily thanks to his considerable personal fortune; and Mucarsel-Powell is struggling to keep up financially in a massive state with several expensive media markets.
Maryland: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin is retiring
Why Democrats feel good about the race: In one of the nation’s reliably blue states, Angela Alsobrooks’ polling lead appears to be growing, and it won’t hurt that there’s an abortion-rights ballot measure on the statewide ballot.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Larry Hogan remains popular in the state, and the former governor is benefiting from massive investments from Republican megadonors.
Michigan: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Most recent polling shows Elissa Slotkin well positioned to prevail in a state that has elected a Republican senator only once in the past 50 years.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite former Rep. Mike Rogers’ baggage — he moved to Florida after retiring from Congress — he’s keeping the race close.
Montana: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Tester is a respected and accomplished incumbent, running on a record of success, and it won’t hurt that there’s an abortion-rights ballot measure on the statewide ballot.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Polls suggest Tester is nevertheless losing to a struggling Republican businessman who’s facing controversies surrounding his racist rhetoric, his record of dishonesty about a gunshot wound, and alleged plagiarism in his book.
Nebraska: Incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Independent Dan Osborn has stunned much of the political world by running a strong race — Republicans have scrambled in recent weeks to start airing ads in a state they expected to ignore — and polls suggest he’s within striking distance of an upset victory. The fact that the ballot will include measures on abortion policy might also help tip the scales.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: At the end of the day Nebraska is a reliably ruby-red state.
Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Nevada is one of the nation’s most closely divided battleground states, but polls suggest Rosen is well positioned to prevail. Nevada is also one of the states with an abortion-rights measure on the statewide ballot.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Republican Sam Brown isn’t far behind the incumbent, and there’s still a lot of GOP money backing his candidacy.
Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana, Brown is a respected and accomplished incumbent, running on a record of success. Unlike Tester, recent polling shows Brown hanging on to a small lead.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Bernie Moreno isn’t exactly an impressive candidate, and he isn’t exactly running a good campaign, but he’s still within 3 points of a popular senator, thanks in large part to the fact that Ohio is becoming a reliably red state.
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is seeking a fourth term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio, Casey is a respected and accomplished incumbent, running on a record of success. The latest polls also show the senator with modest but steady leads.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: Despite his carpetbagger problem, Dave McCormick is still within striking distance of defeating a longtime incumbent.
Texas: Incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is exactly the kind of candidate who can appeal to a broad audience in Texas — “Republicans for Allred” has some established and well-known figures on board — and many GOP insiders have started to express real anxiety in response to surprisingly close polls.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: For all of Cruz’s many troubles, he still has an “R” after his name in Texas. With Trump expected to win the state with relative ease, are there really a significant number of voters who will vote for Trump and Allred on the same ballot? GOP insiders believe the answer is no.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term
Why Democrats feel good about the race: Like Tester in Montana, Brown in Ohio, and Casey in Pennsylvania, Baldwin is a respected and accomplished incumbent, running on a record of success. The latest polls also show the senator with modest-but-steady leads.
Why Republicans feel good about the race: In a dynamic similar to the Ohio contest, Eric Hovde isn’t exactly an impressive candidate, and he isn’t exactly running a good campaign, but he’s still within 5 points of a popular senator.
The stakes are high. Watch this space.
