Following Super Tuesday last week, and several primaries and caucuses over the weekend, there’s no rest for the weary. Republican voters in four states — Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi — cast ballots tomorrow, with 150 delegates on the line.
And while every contest matters, the Michigan primary is this week’s biggest prize. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, released over the weekend, has the race shaping up this way:
1. Donald Trump: 41%
2. Ted Cruz: 22%
3. Marco Rubio: 17%
4. John Kasich: 13%
A new Monmouth University poll, released just a minute ago, put the frontrunner’s lead a little lower — and pointed to a very different race for second place.
1. Donald Trump: 36%
2. Ted Cruz: 23%
3. John Kasich: 21%
4. Marco Rubio: 13%
Finally, a Mitchell Research/Fox 2 poll released this morning pointed in a similar direction to Monmouth.
1. Donald Trump: 42%
2. John Kasich: 20%
3. Ted Cruz: 19%
4. Marco Rubio: 9%
It’s anecdotal, but the New York Times‘ Jonathan Martin added this morning that he spoke to some GOP state legislators in Michigan yesterday, and they agreed that it’s Kasich coming on strong, having “eclipsed Rubio” in suburbs.
Keep in mind, to be eligible for at-large delegates in Michigan, Republican candidates have to reach a 15% threshold. As of now, two of the three most recent polls suggest Rubio may not clear this bar — which would be the latest in a series of embarrassing setbacks for the Florida senator.
As for tomorrow’s other contests — the Hawaii caucus, and primaries in Idaho and Mississippi — polling is scarce and there are no obvious favorites in the GOP contests.
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Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."