The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is chock full of interesting data, and though there are results both sides will be glad to see, on balance, the news is better for President Obama than Mitt Romney.
In a head-to-head match-up, Obama’s lead is only three points nationwide, 47% to 44%, which is largely unchanged from the last few months. But among voters in battleground states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Obama’s lead is eight points, 50% to 42%.
Just as importantly, Romney’s favorable numbers are dropping: the number of voters with a favorable impression of the Republican is down to just 33% nationwide, and 30% in swing states.
Of particular interest to me, though, was a question pollsters don’t often ask: are you voting for your preferred candidate or against the rival candidate? I put a chart together noting Obama’s edge on this question:
It’s really not close. While nearly three out of four Obama backers are motivated by their support for the president (what I call “genuine support”), more than half of Romney’s backers are driven by their opposition to Obama (what I call “support by default”). In other words, even those who intend to vote for Romney for president don’t really like him; they’re just prepared to settle for him because he’s not the other guy. The Republican isn’t inspiring admiration; he’s counting on the incumbent inspiring hatred.
In recent elections, this hasn’t been a recipe for success.
Other observations from the poll:









