UPDATE (May 8, 2025, 1:33 p.m. ET): Robert Prevost of the United States has been elected as the new leader of the Catholic Church — and the first American pope. He will be known as Pope Leo XIV. White smoke rose out of the Sistine Chapel’s chimney Wednesday, signifying the conclave’s selection of Pope Francis’ successor on the cardinals’ second day of voting.
As the Catholic Church’s College of Cardinals enters the conclave to select the next leader of the church Wednesday, one of the most pressing questions is what part of the world that leader will come from. While Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines is considered to be a front-runner, known for his affable style and karaoke skills, there has been buzz about the possibility of an African pope. The Catholic population has exploded on the continent, and an estimated 20% of the world’s Catholics live there.
Gelasius, who reigned from 492-496, was the last pope who hailed from Africa. And there are Africans in today’s College of Cardinals who are papabile (pope potentials).
There may be a lot of chatter about a conservative or liberal pope, but Francis has stacked the deck with cardinals from all over the world.
The selection of a new pope is always dramatic, but tensions arose this time even before the conclave began. There were reported leaks of conversations held at General Congregation, a meeting of the cardinals held prior to the conclave. According to unnamed sources to America Magazine, some cardinals complained about Pope Francis’ papacy, especially regarding his involvement of the laity in the church. Some cardinals believe that the administration of church affairs should be held only by the ordained. These complaints come from cardinals and conservatives hoping to claw back some of the power to the West — Francis was from Argentina — for which they compiled a profile of cardinals they consider acceptable.
These cardinals may have a hard time electing the kind of pope they want, though, because Francis appointed 108 of the 133 cardinals who’ll be involved in selecting the next pope. There may be a lot of chatter about a conservative or liberal pope, but Francis has stacked the deck with cardinals from all over the world.
While an African pope would be a historically stunning development, one of the drawbacks is that no African cardinal holds a major office in the Vatican. That said, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besengu of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana are three candidates to watch.
Besengu, the archbishop of Kinshasa, was appointed by Francis in 2019. At 65, he may be considered a bit too young to be pope. (Generally, electors don’t like to pick someone that young as it can have a long-term effect on church polity and politics). As bishop in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Besengu stood up against President Joseph Kabila’s attempts to push back elections, which bodes well for his willingness to push back against autocratic leaders. He is staunchly against homosexuality. When Francis issued a Fiducia Supplicans that allowed for same-sex blessings, Besengu followed with a statement that was explicitly opposed, stating along with some other cardinals who signed, that there’d be no same-sex blessings in Africa.
Though Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea is papabile, his notoriety as a strict conservative make him something of a wedge candidate who’d potentially divide groups. Appointed at age 34 as the bishop of Conakry, the 79-year-old theological hard-liner became embroiled in scandal in January 2020 for a book, “From the Depths of Our Hearts,” supposedly co-written by Sarah and Pope Benedict XVI. The problem was that the emeritus pope did not agree to co- author that book, and his name was dropped from the publication. Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, archbishop of Cape Coast in Ghana, is also papabile. He was appointed as cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, which may make him amenable to those who want a pope who was not appointed by Francis. Turkson is the chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences. He defended Francis’ same-sex blessings decision and, unlike many clerics in Africa, is against the criminalization of homosexuality, putting him at odds with Ghana’s bishops and Ghana’s political establishment that has made it illegal to identify as an LGBTQ person. Turkson has also been at the forefront of speaking about climate change and the environment, which puts him in line with Francis on those issues. Anything is possible when considering who is papabile. But as the saying goes, you go into the conclave a pope, you come out a cardinal. In other words, don’t assume anything. While it would bring great joy to not only the continent of Africa, but also to persons of African descent around the world, it may be difficult in this current conclave to elect a pope from Africa. While Francis shrewdly stacked the College of Cardinals, it may be hard to get consensus around candidates who are so divergent in opinions and skill sets. But for some among the African faithful, even having their cardinals considered is a win.
Anthea Butler is a professor of religious studies and Africana studies at the University of Pennsylvania. 
