Whether out of an overwhelming sense of humanity or his ongoing desire to secure a Nobel Peace Prize, President Donald Trump is working hard to resolve the war in Ukraine with a diplomatic settlement as soon as possible. And it appears he’s willing to levy an extraordinary amount of pressure to get there. The Trump administration’s change in approach has gotten European leaders nervous at best and downright distraught at worst. On Thursday, nearly a week after Trump shouted over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in their televised Oval Office meeting, European leaders held an emergency summit to cope with the fallout.
Trump’s objective is less about ending it in a “just peace” as Kyiv and Washington’s European allies frequently proclaim and more about ending it, period.
“It’s time to stop this madness,” Trump told lawmakers Tuesday in his first speech to Congress since getting his election. “It’s time to halt the killing. It’s time to end the senseless war.” Who can argue with the sentiment? The conflict in Ukraine, which entered its fourth year last month, killed tens of thousands of people and resulted in more than $500 billion worth of damage. The pace of the fighting isn’t getting any less intense over time. The Ukrainian army is holding its own but remains under severe pressure from a larger adversary whose leader, Vladimir Putin, has elevated the war above all other priorities.
Trump, however, is receiving strong pushback over the tactics he’s using to bring the war to a close. Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, Trump’s objective is less about ending it in a “just peace” as Kyiv and Washington’s European allies frequently proclaim and more about ending it, period. And unlike Biden, Trump is not afraid to use the stick to get the combatants to cooperate. Since Washington ultimately has more leverage over Kyiv than Moscow — the U.S. has provided Ukraine $120 billion in assistance, including $67 billion in military aid, since the war began — Trump has chosen to use the tools he has to bring Zelenskyy into compliance with a diplomatic process he clearly wants to succeed. The Trump administration has paused not only military support to Ukraine but also intelligence cooperation, although national security adviser Mike Waltz and CIA Director John Ratcliffe suggested the next morning that the pause could be lifted if the Ukrainians formally enter peace talks.
Some foreign policy analysts and Democratic lawmakers are aghast. Others have compared Trump’s about-face on the war to the U.S. switching sides during World War II. Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council aide, even claimed that Trump was now pursuing a Russia First policy.
But amid all the hyperbole, it’s important to consider several key points.
First and foremost, the Trump administration is absolutely correct to strive for a diplomatic settlement to this war. Although the Russians have made their fair share of mistakes during the course of three years of combat, the facts on the ground and the trends on the battlefield remain at Kyiv’s disadvantage. The Ukrainians are still licking their wounds from a 2023 counteroffensive in the east, which stalled out in short order and produced little in the way of tangible territorial gains. Outside of an incursion into Russia’s Kursk province last summer — Russia has reportedly retaken about half of the land the Ukrainians originally captured — the Ukrainian army has been on the defensive for well over a year.
All of this is exacerbating Ukraine’s systemic manpower issues. Vice President JD Vance was overly obnoxious about it during his argument with Zelenskyy last week, but he wasn’t wrong: The Ukrainians are hurting for personnel and have resorted to extraordinary measures, like plucking draft-age men off the streets, to fill in the ranks. Ukrainian troops at the front haven’t had a decent rest since the first bombs were dropped in February 2022, a consequence of Ukrainian politicians remaining highly resistant to a nationwide mobilization, which would involve drafting younger men into the army.
The Russians have their problems, too. According to one assessment, more than 780,000 Russians have been killed or injured in the war to date. The difference, however, is that Russia is still recruiting enough replacements every month to account for the casualties. Kyiv, therefore, must engage in some serious introspection and ask itself whether it serves Ukraine’s interests to let the war continue, or whether it’s better to cut a deal now before the hole becomes too deep to climb out of. In the end, this is a decision only Zelenskyy, not Trump, can make.








