Something strange happens when you watch Donald Trump talk for an hour. At first, you’ll be nodding along in agreement if you support him, or throwing your hands up in exasperation if you don’t. But as the minutes roll by, that initial, almost involuntary emotional response he usually inspires begins to fade. The lines become increasingly tedious with repetition, and the result is a performance that might have you nodding off.
That was Trump’s “town hall” Wednesday night on Fox News: a halfhearted recitation of a hundred well-worn lies, repeated ad nauseam. It was enough to make one wonder whether Trump can persuade anyone of anything anymore.
Even to the majority of citizens who pay little attention to politics, Trump’s message all would have been mind-numbingly familiar.
The former president could not have chosen a friendlier environment to repeat his message; the queries from the Fox anchors were so gentle you’d think their questions had been written by Donald Trump Jr. The same was for the questions from the audience: Most came from Iowans who, almost bursting with joy at being in Trump’s presence, announced their intention to caucus for him next week before asking what wonders await us in a second Trump term. They did laugh at times, but only at jokes they have heard a hundred times before (“He said, ‘Ron DeSanctimonious,’ ha-ha!”), more out of obligation than genuine mirth.
Even to the majority of citizens who pay little attention to politics, Trump’s message would have been mind-numbingly familiar. It’s simple: America was a paradise when he was president; now it’s a nightmare, and everything will be spectacular again if he wins in November. “We were so successful that the country was coming together,” he said about his first term, in the face of all evidence.
The picture Trump painted of the years between 2017 and 2021 was truly remarkable. “We ran it very smart for four years and we won everything,” he said. “We were doing better than anybody has ever done.” And today? Some liberals might tell you that unemployment is at just 3.7% and 14 million jobs have been created under President Joe Biden, but Trump knows different: “The economy is horrible except the stock market’s going up,” he said. “And I think the stock market’s going up because I’m leading Biden in all the polls.” Right.
Trump has always employed this very simple strategy: Dish out the most preposterous hyperbole and lies, but do it with the utter conviction that only an experienced con artist can muster. It’s what he did as a businessman, what he did when he ran for president in 2016, and what he has done ever since.
There’s nothing subtle or clever about this strategy, and it has failed again and again. This can be hard to keep in mind, especially for Democrats who find Trump justifiably infuriating. But remember: It was only through the confluence of some extraordinary circumstances that Trump managed to win the Electoral College in 2016 despite getting fewer votes than Hillary Clinton (herself a deeply flawed candidate).
If Trump wins, it won’t be because currently undecided voters believe his fun-house picture of the world.
In 2018, Trump told Americans they had to vote Republican because caravans of dangerous immigrants were coming to invade the country, while simultaneously arguing that his leadership had brought so much winning that America was in a state of unprecedented bliss. Voters were unpersuaded, and gave Democrats a historic victory. In 2020, Trump lost the popular vote again, and this time the Electoral College as well. Then in 2022, due in no small part to his continuing presence, Republicans fell well short of the sweeping victory they expected.
In other words, Trump keeps deploying the same theory of persuasion, and keeps losing. That wasn’t always true for him; in his business career, bluster and bombast often translated into success. But it was usually temporary, lasting only until the marks who were taken in by schemes like Trump University realized they were the targets of a scam. Nevertheless, the 2024 election will be extremely close, and as of writing Trump leads Biden in polls by an average of 0.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics. There are many reasons why, starting with our country’s intractable partisan divisions. But no one could seriously argue that the race is competitive because Trump’s rhetoric is so compelling, and people really believe him that in 2020 they were living in paradise and today they’re in hell. He certainly has his cultists, who long ago decided that whatever Trump says is true and everything else is a lie. That will not change. And there are a number of things that could put him back in the White House: a sudden economic downturn, or a last-minute health crisis for Biden. But if Trump wins, it won’t be because currently undecided voters believe his fun-house picture of the world. That act is just dull.
Paul Waldman is a journalist and author focused on politics and culture. 
