Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is soaring in New Hampshire. A new Saint Anselm College survey shows Haley with 30% support among likely Republican primary voters in the state, trailing former President Donald Trump by 14 points. (The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.) That’s double the level of support Haley had in the same poll three months ago, and the closest any candidate has gotten to Trump in the state.
It’s the strongest sign yet of Haley’s momentum as she slowly climbs in national polls. And with New Hampshire being the site of the second nominating contest of the Republican presidential primary season, it’s a potentially high-stakes win if she can pull it off. Haley has relatively broad appeal across the GOP; there is a theoretical possibility that a Haley victory would alter the Republican electorate’s sense of her viability and change the contours of the race.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is partially a function of how odd its Republicans are.
But the odds are still heavily stacked against such a scenario. Haley needs other candidates to drop out of the race to have a meaningful chance against Trump. And as influential as New Hampshire is, it’s also enough of an outlier on the spectrum of Republican politics so as to create an illusion of viability rather than serve as the harbinger of it.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is partially a function of how odd its Republicans are. New Hampshire Republicans have an independent libertarian streak and skew exceptionally educated and secular. That’s an opening for Haley because Trump’s sweet spot is with non-college-educated voters, and because she isn’t being crowded out of substantial voting blocs, like Trump-aligned evangelicals in Iowa. Haley has been racking up political endorsements in the Granite State, most notably from popular four-term Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Haley is also likely to benefit from the fact that independents can vote in the Republican primary, which dilutes the power of partisans who are likely to lean Trump. By the same token, it’s not difficult to see how Trump can downplay a New Hampshire loss as a sign of his own credibility with the base.
As Haley gains momentum, a pro-Trump super PAC is preparing to launch attack ads against her. To have a fighting chance against Trump in New Hampshire (and elsewhere), Haley really needs the rest of the field to drop out, allowing her to occupy the anti-Trump lane — or at least allow the Trump-fatigued sector of the GOP to consolidate behind her. Leaving aside the extremely small likelihood it would even happen, it’s unclear what percentage of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ followers would shift to Haley if he were to drop out, given that his platform radiates ultra-MAGA energy. But if former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie ended his campaign, it’s highly plausible that a significant chunk of his supporters would float over to Haley. There’s also reason to think that the stridently anti-Trump Christie could do so in a strategic bid to help bolster intra-GOP resistance to Trump. Even if Haley wins in New Hampshire, it could be the exception that proves the rule. In the very next primary, South Carolina, Trump is trouncing her by around 30 points on average in the polls — and that’s the state where she served as governor. Nevada after that isn’t looking pretty, either. And Trump is still some 50 points ahead of Haley in national polls, the kind of dominant lead that typically predicts a safe path to the nomination. Haley will likely need more than a little luck, like an unexpected turn of events in Trump’s criminal trials, to have any chance of mounting a fight. For now, a New Hampshire victory is more likely to be merely a flash in the pan.
Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for MS NOW. Previously, he worked at Vox, HuffPost and Politico, and he has also been published in, among other places, The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Nation, and The Intercept. You can sign up for his free politics newsletter by clicking the link at the top of this bio. 
