UPDATE (Feb. 23, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET): As of Sunday afternoon, exit polls project the center-right CDU party has garnered the largest vote share in Germany, making Friedrich Merz the likely next chancellor. The far-right AfD party surged into second place overall, but its role in a coalition government remains unclear.
The future of the European Union’s anchor nation is on the line this Sunday as German voters head to the polls to elect a new parliament, the Bundestag, which will eventually choose the nation’s next chancellor.
This year’s election includes some surprise (and unwelcome) American cameos, however. Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance have been trying to throw their weight around and maybe even influence the election’s outcome. For months, Musk has been campaigning from afar for Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which embraces anti-immigration, anti-Muslim, anti-Ukraine and anti-establishment sentiment.
Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance have been trying to throw their weight around and maybe even influence the election’s outcome.
“Only the AfD can save Germany,” Musk proclaimed recently as he hosted a 74-minute conversation on his X social media platform.
Earlier this month, Vance made a point of meeting one on one with Weidel at the Munich Security Conference, reportedly discussing Ukraine, German politics and the “firewall of the right” that has prevented far-right parties from joining coalition governments. Vance declined to meet with center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party has the polling edge, but surging into second place is AfD with around 20%. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) have fallen to third place. The result is still likely to be a coalition of parties. The problem? Merz wants to keep AfD out, while Musk, Vance and Donald Trump want it in.
How many votes does this trio command? My fear is that the Americans have more of a following in Germany than they deserve, and are appealing to voters unenthusiastic about Germany’s current direction.
Indeed, Musk has only been stoking such fears on X and in interviews. Far-right websites have seized on his comments, as well as his recent activities by Trump’s side. Capitalizing on fears in the wake of recent terrorist attacks in Germany, he has claimed that foreigners are behind crime increases. “Wow,” he commented in January, on an X post falsely claiming Afghans and Pakistanis are proportionally 16 times more likely to be involved in rape than German citizens.
Worryingly, younger voters have little (or no) memory of the Cold War, when the United States and Western Europe stood together in solidarity against the threat of Soviet tanks pouring through the Fulda Gap and across the Rhine. Many of today’s Germans are more anxious about their faltering economy, pushing to resume the flow of cheap Russian gas — now cut off by a Europe-wide boycott — and calling for an end to Russian sanctions. Both points are planks of the AfD platform. And then there’s fear that Trump tariffs on everything from autos to pharmaceuticals could prove paralyzing. A chilling thought, but potentially less likely with a Trump-friendly AfD in charge. A less democratically minded German leader will make it much harder for other E.U. countries to resist Washington. In contrast, Merz has already told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy he’s prepared to give him what he needs to win. The Ukrainian president has praised both Merz and current leader Scholz as “great guys.” Whoever does emerge as the next chancellor will have to decide how deeply Germany will support democracy and freedom in Ukraine — and how resolutely it will stand up to challenges and threats from both Trump and President Vladimir Putin in Russia. The rest of Europe will of course be watching all of this very closely. A less democratically minded German leader will make it much harder for other European Union countries to resist Washington. The U.S. can and should deal with the new German government, whatever it looks like. And perhaps the Trump administration will eventually remember why strong alliances only enhance American prosperity and power. The hope is that German voters will recognize where their best interests lie, as well.
David A. Andelman
David A. Andelman, formerly a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia, is executive director of The RedLines Project, a multidisciplinary study of the nature and origin of political, military, social and cultural red lines around the world. He wrote "A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen" and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He was awarded France’s Légion d’Honneur in 2021. 
