Fed up with the repeated condemnations of their city — condemnations that are regularly uttered by former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party and Fox News — a few enterprising Chicagoans encapsulated their rage on T-shirts last year. “Shut the f— up about Chicago,” one of those shirts reads. “You don’t live here.”
Republicans have used ‘Chicago’ as a kind of code word. Chicago, in their telling, is what you get when Democrats are in charge and Black people have run amok.
Don’t count on Republicans heeding that advice. Because the city is run by Democrats and because it is wrongly perceived as majority Black and singularly violent, Republicans have used “Chicago” as a kind of code word. Chicago, in their telling, is what you get when Democrats are in charge and Black people have run amok. In an argument that ignores the bright-blue city’s adjacency to bright-red Indiana and its anything-goes gun culture, Republican critics cite Chicago as proof that gun restrictions don’t work.
But just as Democrats aren’t letting Republicans define their candidates, their policies or their record, they’re not letting the GOP define the city hosting this week’s Democratic National Convention. Throwing the party’s big party in Chicago is a more polite way of expressing the message on the T-shirts mentioned above. It is a way of saying that Chicago isn’t what Republicans want everybody else to believe it is.
Let’s start with the idea of crime, specifically murders. Does Chicago have the most of any American city? Yes. But there are only two cities in the country — New York and Los Angeles — that are bigger than Chicago. In fact, with 2.7 million people, Chicago has more people than 15 states. In December, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., disregarded data that shows that Louisiana has the second-highest firearm death rate in the nation as he maligned Chicago as “America’s largest outdoor shooting range.”
As Jeff Asher, of the data analysis research firm AH Datalytics, said in a phone conversation Thursday, “Chicago has the most of everything only because it has almost the most people. In terms of [crime] rates, Chicago is usually outside of the top 10 in terms of murder rate, violent crime.”
“Memphis; St. Louis; New Orleans; Birmingham, Alabama; Detroit,” he said when asked to name the most violent cities in the country. “Detroit is probably going to have the fewest murders since the early ’60s. Still has a high murder rate. New Orleans has seen a 40% reduction in murder relative to 2022. Still has a reasonably high murder rate, so that hasn’t changed.”
But the emphasis stays on Chicago. Less than a week into his term as president, Trump tweeted, “If Chicago doesn’t fix the horrible ‘carnage’ going on, 228 shootings in 2017 with 42 killings (up 24% from 2016), I will send in the Feds!”
In late 2019, when he finally made his first presidential visit to Chicago, he said of the city, “It’s embarrassing to us as a nation. All over the world, they’re talking about Chicago. Afghanistan is a safe place by comparison. It’s true.”
“I think Chicago has issues,” Asher said, “but it’s also generally following the trends everywhere else. And it’s not the only place with issues.” Like so many other American cities, he said, in Chicago “murder rose substantially in 2020, 2021, and then has been coming down steadily ever since.”
Generally speaking, Americans have become awful judges of how bad crime is.
There used to be a relationship between the prevalence of crime and the perception of crime, Asher said, “but I don’t think there is anymore. I think people have created in their minds the situation where either crime is going up or the data is wrong.” In the 1990s, how people felt about crime “matched up pretty closely” to how much crime there was. “Ever since then, the share of people that told Gallup that crime is going up has been above 50% regardless of the direction that crime has gone that year.”








