Clinton maintains strong national lead, but many millennials think Sanders will win nomination

National support for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has remained virtually unchanged since last week despite her decisive sweep of North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Missouri in last week’s primaries. Clinton maintains a 53 percent level of support from registered Democrats and Democratic-leaners. Sanders holds 41 percent support. These results are according to the latest data from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll conducted online from March 14 through March 20 among a national sample of 13,389 adults, including 11,600 who say they are registered to vote. 

Though Clinton did not see a rise in those committed to voting for her, nearly eight in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters now think she will win the Democratic nomination for president, which represents a 61 point margin over Sanders.  This is a 7-point increase from the previous week before her string of victories on March 15.

Though registered Democrats across all age groups say they think Clinton will win the nomination, Sanders’ key supporters—voters under age 30—are much more optimistic that Sanders can win the nomination than voters older than 30. 

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These sharp generational differences have been playing out across the Democratic primary with the bulk of Sanders support coming from younger voters. If Clinton’s delegate lead continues to grow, it will be interesting to see if she starts consolidating support among all Democratic age groups.  This is an open question in the primary season, but is certainly important for her – if she becomes the Democratic nominee – in order to beat the Republican candidate in November.  

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online March 14 through March 20, 2016 among a national sample of 13,389 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,600 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points. For full results and methodology for this weekly tracking poll, please click here.