Why not me?
It’s a thought that surely crossed George Pataki’s mind ahead of his announcement on Thursday that he’ll seek the 2016 Republican nomination for president. After all, he led New York’s state government for over a decade and drew national attention for his administration’s work in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks. Who’s to say he shouldn’t be a contender?
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Yet Pataki is considered an extreme long shot — one of several candidates entering the race this week with a strong presidential résumé, but not much else in their favor. The glut of 2016 Republican contenders — upwards of 18 are seriously looking at runs — means that many of this year’s fringe contenders are experienced politicians who might have garnered serious attention in a different cycle.
In addition to Pataki, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum who ran in 2012, announced his own run on Wednesday. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is set to announce in Central, South Carolina on Monday. All have impressive backgrounds: Pataki can point to three terms as governor of a large blue state. Santorum won the Iowa caucuses in 2012 and finished as the runner-up in the primaries to Mitt Romney in a party that often promotes its runner-up to the top slot the next time around, and many of the current candidates are borrowing liberally from his blue-collar message. Graham is a veteran legislator known for his hawkish foreign policy views and his participation in high-profile bipartisan talks on issues like immigration reform.
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And yet there’s a good chance Pataki, Santorum and Graham won’t even be on the debate stage come August 6, when FOX News hosts the first party sanctioned showdown of the contest. Only the top 10 Republicans in the race will make the grade as determined by an average of recent polling and current averages would leave all three out.
Other non-invitees could include several Republicans with serious executive, legislative, or business experience. Two-term Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who has spent years raising his national profile for a presidential run without much success, is on the outside looking in. Two-term Ohio governor John Kasich, who won a blowout re-election in a critical swing state last year, is only on the edge of qualifying. Three-term former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who ran in 2012 (and lost in spectacular fashion), is also in trouble. Former computer executive Carly Fiorina, who national Republicans hope to showcase as the only female candidate in the field, is generating buzz in early states but still needs to make a national move.
Meanwhile, first time politician and career neurosurgeon Ben Carson looks like a lock. It’s possible real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump, if he keeps up his presidential flirtation long enough, might qualify as well.
“I think it’s tremendous for the Republican Party and for the nation as a whole we have this many candidates,” Steve Duprey, who chairs the RNC’s party’s debates committee, told msnbc in New Hampshire last week. “It’s a historical first.”
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The number of candidates makes sense given the lack of an obvious frontrunner to scare off the rest of the field. A new Quinnipiac poll, released on Thursday, found a five-way tie for first place between former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio, Carson, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, and Wisconsin governor Scott Walker with each getting a paltry 10% slice of support of Republican respondents. Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz were right behind with 7% and 6% support. The margin of error in the poll was +/- 3.8%, so it’s hard to say anyone has a “lead” at all. When even a few points gain might launch them into a higher tier, it becomes a lot easier to convince yourself you have a chance.
Duprey noted that even candidates who miss making it into an early debate may still have a chance to bounce back into the mix.
“Candidates know what they need to shoot for,” Duprey said of the polling qualifications. “It’s important to remember … that just because you’re not in the first one doesn’t mean you won’t be in the others.”
One of the biggest challenges potential candidates face — fundraising — has become less of an issue, as unlimited-donation super PACs have become the norm thanks to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. Santorum survived long enough to duel Romney one-on-one last time thanks to multi-million dollar outside support from mega-donor Foster Friess, who indicated this week that he would back Santorum again.








