Ahead of his first presidential term, Donald Trump boasted to voters about how “tough” he’d be with China. Once in the White House, however, the Republican struggled to follow through on his posturing.
Trump vowed to label China a currency manipulator, for example, before backing down. He said was prepared to walk away from the existing “One China” policy, before backing down on that, too. The administration also started to crack down on the Chinese-backed ZTE Corporation, before once again backing down.
It reached a point where the American president became the subject of mockery in China’s state-run media. One especially memorable headline in April 2017 read, “Trump slaps self in face, again.”
As the president’s second term gets underway, it’s hard not to wonder whether history is repeating itself.
A few days before Thanksgiving, Trump announced that on his first day back in the White House, he’d impose new tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners: Mexico, Canada and China. The president obviously didn’t keep the Day One promise, but he claims he’s now ready to follow through on the policy — or at least most of it. CNBC reported:
Donald Trump has confirmed he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada from February, following through on threats issued weeks earlier. The blanket tariffs on the countries’ products will come into effect on Saturday, Feb. 1.
Trump might yet change his mind — it wouldn’t be the first time — but it’s also notable that the trio of tariff targets this week became a duo.
What about China, which was already set to be punished with lower tariffs than Canada and Mexico? The president told reporters his administration is “in the process” of moving forward with plans for tariffs on China, but he and his team still need to “make that determination.”
In other words, in late November, Trump said he’d target each of our three largest trading partners with Inauguration Day tariffs, but as January comes to an end, he’s prepared to exclude China from his immediate plans.
Complicating matters is the scope of the larger strategy. Edward Fishman, a sanctions expert who served in the Obama administration, told The Washington Post this week that the Trump administration’s broader approach to tariffs will give many countries fresh incentive to deepen their economic ties with China.
“[Trump’s strategy] will undercut the potency of U.S. economic weapons and undercut our efforts to get other countries on our side against China,” Fishman explained.
It’s a concern with broad applicability. The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman explained in his latest column, for example, that Trump’s anti-climate energy policies “will not make America great again. But it will definitely help make China great again.”
There’s also, of course, diplomatic considerations to keep in mind. After the White House’s odd incident with Colombia this week, Dan Drezner, a political scientist at Tufts University, wrote, “[T]his episode was a gift to China’s interests in the region. China will love to play the role of ‘black knight’ in Latin America, providing an alternative source of demand and finance to the region. The more the United States acts like a regional bully, the more countries will start hedging ties by sidling up to China.”
And did I mention that Trump is refusing to implement the TikTok ban, which was designed to address concerns about China? Because that’s true, too.
The American president has not yet explained why, exactly, he’s taken steps that will, deliberately or inadvertently, benefit Beijing, but the disconnect between what Trump said before Election Day 2024 and what he’s doing now is significant.
Meanwhile, as best as I can tell, China’s state-run media has not yet published another round of headlines about the Republican slapping himself in the face, but that seems only a matter of time.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.
