President Donald Trump talks more about how he’s doing in the polls than any other president, but as a recent batch of them shows, he doesn’t have much to brag about.
Over the weekend, Trump falsely claimed on social media that he has the “highest poll numbers” of his “political career,” but recent polling shows he’s at or near the lowest approval rating of his second term.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week found that Trump’s approval rating had fallen to 38%, the lowest of his second term in that poll.
The ongoing problems with the economy appear to be the president’s biggest pain point.
A closer look at those numbers shows that Trump is facing headwinds on multiple fronts, including his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files and the recent federal government shutdown. But the ongoing problems with the economy appear to be the president’s biggest pain point.
After campaigning as a businessman who was a political outsider in 2016, Trump secured fairly high approval ratings on his handling of the economy during his first term, until the downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.
His 2024 bid for a second term was buoyed by voter dissatisfaction with inflation under the Biden administration, and he promised on the campaign trail to slash grocery prices on Day 1.
Instead, the broad, across-the-board tariffs appear to have exacerbated the underlying issue. The Tax Foundation found that these tariffs affected almost three-fourths of all U.S. food imports. Separately, the Yale Budget Lab estimated that the duties could drive food price inflation up by as much as 4%.
Polls indicate that this is hurting Trump’s approval.
A recent Fox News poll found that just 38% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, down from 43% in March.
That poll also found that Americans said the cost of their groceries, utilities, health care and housing have increased in the past year.
And while Trump has repeatedly argued that he inherited a bad economy from Joe Biden, the poll found that 62% of Americans said they think Trump is more responsible for the current economic conditions, while only 32% said Biden was.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has acknowledged the problem more directly.
In mid-November, the White House announced it would exempt some foods from the sweeping tariffs that can’t be grown in the U.S., including coffee and bananas. Trump posted on social media afterward that Republicans are the “Party of Affordability.”
But it will be hard for him to have much of an effect before next year’s midterms.
A survey of economists found that most expect persistent inflation through next year.
A survey of economists by the National Association for Business Economics for its yearend forecast found that most expect persistent inflation through next year, with tariffs responsible for a portion of the price increases.
While these polls show areas of vulnerability for the president, they may also be a sign of a larger problem for him – cracks in his base.
Trump has long had strong support from Republicans, and while he still enjoys a healthy approval rating among his base, polls indicate a small downtick.
Toward the beginning of Trump’s second term, he enjoyed an 89% GOP approval rating, with 63% of Republicans strongly approving of the job he was doing and 26% somewhat approving. Fast-forward to now, and Trump has an 85% approval rating among the party, but with only 45% of Republicans strongly approving of the job he’s doing and 40% somewhat approving. While his overall GOP approval rating remains in the 80s, the strength of his approval among his base has decreased, according to a Marquette University poll.
And similarly, Reuters/Ipsos detailed how the president’s approval rating among Republicans is at 82%, down from 87% earlier this month. The Fox poll has 86% approval from Republicans, down from 92% in March.
Other recent challenges the president has faced may have also contributed to his low approval rating, including his handling of the Epstein files and the shutdown, both areas of weakness not just among Americans but also in his base.
Reuters/Ipsos found that among all U.S. adults, 20% approve of the president’s handling of matters relating to the Epstein case. Only 44% of Republicans approve. And 60% of Republicans – out of about 70% of the poll’s respondents – believe the government is hiding information about Epstein’s clients.
Americans across party lines were also concerned with the government shutdown, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, with 45% of Americans saying Trump and Republicans in Congress are responsible for the shutdown versus 33% who blame Democrats in Congress.
Trump has rebounded from polling lows before, but that may prove hard to do as long as voters are concerned about the economy, which could mean a rough 2026 for the White House.
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Lindsey Pipia
Lindsey Pipia is a White House producer for MS NOW.