Rep. Matt Gaetz has spent much of the year at odds with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but it was a few weeks ago when the Florida Republican took matters to a new level. Gaetz delivered blistering floor remarks against his own party’s leader, insisting that the Californian was “out of compliance” with the promises McCarthy made to his far-right flank in January.
Soon after, Gaetz told reporters that if McCarthy tried to prevent a government shutdown with a “clean” stop-gap spending package, Gaetz would try to fire him.
Three weeks later, McCarthy prevented a government shutdown with a “clean” stop-gap spending package — and so Gaetz is going to try to fire him. NBC News reported:
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., said Sunday that he intends to file a motion to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., this week after Congress voted to avert a shutdown hours before the deadline.
“I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week,” Gaetz said during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I think we need to rip off the Band Aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy.” The Floridian reiterated his intentions on ABC News’ “This Week.”
The timing of the process is still a little murky, but if Gaetz calls for a motion to vacate the chair — or “MTV,” as many are starting to call it — at some point later today, the House will have to vote on it within two legislative days.
I won’t pretend to know what’s going to happen, but there’s no shortage of questions worth considering as the process unfolds.
How many Republicans will vote to oust McCarthy? As of now, there’s no firm head-count, but Capitol Hill scuttlebutt suggests the number is between 5 and 10. For Gaetz and his allies, five is the floor to keep in mind: If every House Democrat were to vote against McCarthy, and they were joined by five House Republicans, McCarthy would lose his speaker’s gavel.
How many Republicans would vote to oust Gaetz? A lot more than 10. It’s important to emphasize that the Floridian’s move is not popular within the House GOP conference. But Gaetz doesn’t need a lot of support; he just needs a little.
How many Democrats are prepared to go along with Gaetz’s scheme? No one seems to have any idea. McCarthy is not liked, respected, or even trusted by rank-and-file House Democrats, but it’s also true that they hold Gaetz in even lower regard, and some members of the minority conference see the current speaker as the devil they know. Or put another way, it’s a distinct possibility that Democrats will vote to rescue McCarthy because they fear his successor would be even worse.
What kind of deal would Democrats seek with McCarthy in order to rescue him? House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said effectively nothing on this, keeping his cards close to his chest. Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Talking Points Memo last week she’d like to see McCarthy agree to some kind of “power-sharing” agreement, but that’s almost certainly too much to expect.
What kind of offer might McCarthy make to Democrats? There’s enormous uncertainty on this point, too. That said, Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman, who tends to have very good sourcing when it comes to the speaker’s office, said this morning that as far as McCarthy’s allies are concerned, there won’t be serious negotiations with Democrats on the motion to vacate, and Democratic leaders haven’t heard from GOP leaders “in a serious way.” If McCarthy doesn’t offer Democrats anything, isn’t that risky? Yes. As NBC News’ Sahil Kapur explained, Democrats don’t want to be “a cheap date” and “rescue him for nothing.” How worried is McCarthy? Publicly, not at all. In fact, he boasted on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that he’ll “survive” the fight just fine. “Bring it on,” the speaker added. “Let’s get over with it.” He’s made similar comments before. But let’s not forget that McCarthy has spent quite a bit of time and energy taking steps to appease his radicals — and if he weren’t at all worried about a motion to vacate, he wouldn’t have bothered. If Gaetz’s effort falls short, what’s to stop McCarthy’s GOP critics from trying again soon after? Nothing. In fact, there might very well be a lengthy series of such votes, and under the rules of the current Congress, there are no procedural hurdles that would prevent Gaetz and his likeminded colleagues from trying several times. Watch this space.
Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans' War on the Recent Past."
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